MyFXIdeas.com

NZDUSD
Res: 0.8305/0.8358/0.8421
Sup: 0.8248/0.8211/0.8155
We have Kiwi at the brink of its own multiple top bearish breakout with daily indicators showing stochastic poised to push to oversold levels while macd is already dropping. From the 4H picture we see a confluence of bears with stochastic already pushing to oversold areas while macd is down. Hourly indicators are also bearish with stochastic already oversold and macd dropping. At this point we are looking for an hourly close under 0.8247 to start off a big picture multiple top sell-off. Alternatively we look for shorts from under 0.8305.

EURUSD
Res: 1.3254/1.3289/1.3327
Sup: 1.3211/1.3186/1.3145
Euro found some support off the EURGBP rally to end Wednesday slightly in positive territory. Daily indicators show a mixed set of signals with stochastic coming off overbought levels while macd is crossing higher. In intraday charts we are also seeing indecision among the indicators with 4H stochastic rising and macd heading lower. Hourly indicators in the meantime has macd heading down and stochastic poised to move up. Given the mixed signals and the overall risk averse environment we are partial to taking the sell side of EURUSD. Consider shorts from just under 1.3289 with tight stops above it at 1.3300.

EURGBP
Res: 0.8486/0.8511/0.8564
Sup: 0.8448/0.8408/0.8378
Wednesday finally saw EURGBP breaking past its congestion resistance, the 0.8408 region, now a strong support. Among indicators this has dragged daily stochastic to overbought levels while macd is rising. Note our immediate resistance is a strong one at 0.8486. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with the 4H picture looking bullish as stochastic push to overbought levels while macd’s rise. This as hourly charts show new sell signals in both stochastic and macd. At this point we have clearly lost momentum though a push to the strong resistance may pave the way for a further sell-off in Cable.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.5701/1.5735/1.5764
Sup: 1.5644/1.5603/1.5550
Cable saw a huge sell-off Wednesday following hints from the MPC minutes that further quantitative easing is possible given two dissenting votes which called for an even greater increase in the APF. From our charts we are poised at a multiple top breakout following the sell-off with macd’s down and daily stochastic getting nearer the oversold threshold. From the 4H picture we have a confluence of bears stochastic oversold and macd’s dropping. In hourly charts we are seeing mixed signals as macd’s cross up while stochastic pushes for oversold levels. At this point we are looking for an early break of 1.5644 otherwise we risk getting signals for a bounce if we remain just above 1.5644 by European midday.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0658/1.0700/1.0750
Sup: 1.0605/1.0568/1.0525
We saw Aussy closing just at the brink of a double top in the daily charts, marginally above the 1.0629 area for Wednesday. Among indicators we see daily macd’s heading lower while stochastic is pushing to oversold areas, at the moment we have prices trying to remain under the 1.0629 region, strong daily support. The prior for us is an argument for a successful bearish breakout. In intraday charts we have a bearish bias as 4H stochastic and macd are dropping while from the hourly level we have stochastic already heading for 20 while macd is poised to follow. For now we are adopting a bearish bias though a close under 1.0629 would be desirable. A break of the 1.0605 minor support may also be seen as an aggressive entry.

AUDJPY
Res: 85.73/86.19/86.62
Sup: 85.22/84.72/84.24
With the Aussy at the brink of a multiple top bearish breakout, we have AUDJPY dragged lower despite the gains among the rest of the Yen pairs. Among indicators we have mixed signals in the daily levels as macd remains above the signal line while stochastic has come off overbought levels. Note the gap between daily EMA lines and prices suggesting mean reversion risk. In 4H charts we have mixed signals with stochastic rising and macd’s heading down. Hourly indicators are also mixed with macd rising and stochastic heading for oversold levels. For now keep a close eye on Aussy as a move below 1.0629 would suggest a bear market for AUDJPY though we favor a sell on rallies in line with the mean reversion idea from the daily charts.

USDCHF
Res: 0.9138/0.9170/0.9207
Sup: 0.9102/0.9051/0.9021
USDCHF is currently just above a strong support the 0.9102 region. Daily indicators shows a flat macd though above its signal line, while stochastic is coming off oversold levels. From the lower time frames we have macd crossing in 4H charts while stochastic has just crossed down. In the hourly picture we see mixed signals with stochastic rising and macd flat. Given the strong support we favor a buy on dips approach coming off the 0.9102 level, a close above 0.9138 may also be taken.

EURGBP
Res: 0.8407/0.8443/0.8486
Sup: 0.8378/0.8352/0.8337
After bouncing up the past few days we have EURGBP coming off our strong resistance at 0.8408 in keeping with the pattern over the last few weeks. Among indicators we have daily stochastic still pointing higher while macd has just crossed up. In intraday charts we have mixed signals with 4H stochastic poised to cross lower while macd is still rising. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic crossing higher and macd with a bear cross. For now we are maintaining a sell on rallies approach, look for rejections off the 0.8407 area or a close under 0.8378 to signal our range play is continuing.

EURUSD
Res: 1.3249/1.3292/1.3321
Sup: 1.3189/1.3164/1.3138
Tuesday turned out to be rejection day with EURUSD coming off 1.3292a strong resistance level. Daily indicators shows stochastic coming off overbought areas while macd for its part has crossed higher. Despite the mixed view in daily indicators we appear to be generally bearish in the lower time frames. From 4H stochastic we have a bearish divergence while macd is poised to cross lower. Hourly indicators for their part has macd’s heading lower while stochastic is at the brink of a new bearish move. For now proximity to the 1.3198 price point suggests that we be cautious news shorts to be taken only on a close under 1.3198 or coming off 1.3249.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.5830/1.5880/1.5927
Sup: 1.5769/1.5712/1.5644
Cable saw another sell-off yesterday to follow through mondays rejection from the 1.5880 region, a strong resistance. Among indicators we have a confluence of bears with macd’s heading lower and stochastic coming off overbought levels. Although we have daily EMA lines just beneath previous experience shows a violation of those EMA lines is possible. In the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears for the 4H level with stochastic pushing to oversold areas. In hourly charts we have macd’s under the signal lines though stochastic has been oscillating around 20. Immediate risk is for a push lower, a close under 1.5769 would pave the way for 1.5712 then on to key supports at 1.5644.

AUDUSD
Res: 1.0699/1.0749/1.0795
Sup: 1.0639(40)/1.0589/1.0526
Aussy appears to be at the brink of a daily level double top breakout, though we face a strong support at 1.0639(40). From indicators we have daily macd’s heading lower while stochastic is poised to push to oversold levels. In 4H charts we have macd’s heading lower while stochastic has been crawling just above the 20 area currently looking to push under. Hourly indicators for their part has stochastic coming off oversold areas while macd is flat. Note we have HSBC’s Manufacturing PMI figures coming out at 0230GMT. Should the figures come out above 50 this will be a bullish surprise and may be used as an excuse for bouncing off our support. Note given the strength of our support failure to break lower early on risks a bounce by the time European markets open.

USDCHF
Res: 0.9147/0.9170/0.8207
Sup: 0.9102/0.9083/0.9060
We have USDCHF fast approaching the key support at 0.9102, the floor of our congestion for the last 4-weeks. From indicators we currently have daily stochastic heading for oversold levels while macd’s are flat above the signal. In intraday charts we have a confluence of bears from the 4H and hourly macd and stochastic with the latter pushing further into oversold areas for both. Immediate risk at this point calls for a test of the support 0.9102 though given previous price action and the strength of the said level we prefer remaining sidelined looking for base building to and an eventual bounce off 0.9102.

EURJPY
Res: 105.66/106.01/106.49
Sup: 104.65/104.16/103.69
EURJPY started off with a huge upside gap at the open to see daily indicators at overbought levels in stochastic and macd pointing up. Note we are currently dealing with the 200D SMA, a moderate resistance level while prices has already seen a pullback covering the gap with Friday’s high. In the lower time frames we are seeing mixed signals with macd’s rising in 4H charts and stochastic coming off overbought levels. Hourly indicators see more mixed signals with macd’s down and stochastic on the rise. For now we prefer remaining sidelined though with the overall bullish bias, a buy on dips to 104.65 may be seen as an entry.

GBPUSD
Res: 1.5883/1.5928/1.6005
Sup: 1.5846/1.5789/1.5737
After gaping higher at the open we have GBPUSD having trouble in making further progress hitting a wall at 1.5883, a strong resistance level. In daily charts we have stochastic at overbought levels while macd is bottoming out. From the lower time frames we have a confluence of bears in the hourly picture with stochastic poised to head for oversold levels. In 4H charts we have a bearish divergence white stochastic crossing lower while macd is still above its signal line. Given the lack of impetus, a strong, open and strong resistances immediate risk appears to be for a pullback. For now consider shorts from just under 1.5883.